This is Going to Bring A Lot More Salmon & Steelhead - Southern Ontario Fishing Forecast Sept 16th
This is big. We have had a major change in the fishing scene here in Southern Ontario over the past week, and it could signal the beginning of a much bigger shift in our salmon and steelhead season.

Our rivers have plummeted in temperature, and that is a huge trigger for migratory fish.

If you've been out on the salmon and steelhead rivers recently, you may have noticed that water temperatures had remained surprisingly high. We were seeing decent numbers of fish entering some rivers, but the season hadn't really gone into full swing yet, with the exception of a few of the eastern tributaries.

That changes now!

A Major Drop in Water Temperature

The Credit River is a great example of what has happened. Just a week ago, temperatures in the lower portions of the river were around 21°C. They have now dropped to roughly 16°C.

That's a five-degree drop in a very short period of time, and for cold-water species like salmon, steelhead and trout, that is a significant change.

Salmon and steelhead are cold-water fish. When a river is warmer than the lake, there isn't necessarily much incentive for fish sitting offshore to enter it. As river temperatures fall, that equation changes. Suddenly the river is providing the kind of cold-water environment these fish are looking for, and we can expect to see considerably more fish begin moving upstream.

That is exactly what we're starting to see now.

Steelhead Are Coming Into Play

This is particularly interesting for early-season steelhead.

Some rivers, such as the Grand River, are known for getting early runs of steelhead. Those early movements are often driven less by a major rainfall event and more by water temperature.

A useful rule of thumb is that once river temperatures get below roughly 20°C, we can start expecting to see steelhead beginning to move into suitable systems, even if the river isn't particularly high.

With temperatures now well below that threshold in many places, we're entering a very different part of the season.

That means more salmon, more steelhead and more migratory trout should begin showing up in our rivers.

Early-Season Steelhead on the Swing

If you're someone who likes to swing flies for steelhead, this is a particularly exciting time to get out.

We're still on the leading edge of the season, so the overall numbers aren't going to match what we'll see later in October and November. But there is a major advantage to getting out now: the fish that are already in the system are incredibly fresh and energetic.

These are the fish that can absolutely peel line off your reel. They have spent relatively little time in the river, they're full of energy, and they're willing to chase down a swung fly and hit it hard.

That can make early-season steelheading some of the most exciting fishing of the year.

There's another advantage, too. Because we're still at the beginning of the season, you're generally not dealing with the same level of angling pressure you'll see once the calendar gets deeper into October and November.

If you've been waiting for the right time to get out and swing flies for steelhead, this is a very good window to start paying attention.

Don't Wait for the "Peak" Season

It's easy to look at the calendar and think that the real season is still a month or two away.

October, November and December contain some of our most popular steelhead fishing of the year, so it can be tempting to wait until then.

But we've seen this play out enough times that we don't recommend taking that approach.

We've had years where November arrives and suddenly we're dealing with a major rainfall event, rapidly changing river conditions, or a blast of cold weather that can change the fishing dramatically. Last year was a good example of how quickly conditions can turn and how easy it is to miss opportunities if you wait for the "perfect" part of the season.

Right now, the conditions are lining up.

We've had a tremendous amount of rain this month, river levels are good, water temperatures are dropping, and there are already fish around.

That's a pretty good combination.

Trout Fishing Is Still Excellent

And it's not just the migratory fish that are benefiting from these conditions.

Resident trout fishing remains extremely strong as well.

The upper Credit is sitting around 12–13°C, which is excellent trout water. We're in a really nice period where the rivers are cool, water levels have been healthy, and the fish are active.

This is one of those transition periods where you can have a fantastic day targeting resident trout and then turn your attention toward migratory fish as the conditions continue to develop.

With the amount of water we've received and the drop in temperature we've seen, there is a lot happening in our rivers right now.

Get Out There

The biggest takeaway this week is simple: the season has changed.

That five-degree drop on the lower Credit is a huge development, and we're expecting it to have a significant impact on salmon and steelhead movement. More fish should begin entering the rivers as conditions become increasingly favourable.

The fishery will continue to build through October and into November, but there's no reason to wait for the peak of the season to start fishing.

Some of the best opportunities can come right at the beginning, when the fish are fresh, aggressive and full of energy, and the rivers haven't yet reached their busiest point.

So consider this your little PSA from people who have made the mistake ourselves: don't drag your feet.

Conditions are good right now. We've got water, we've got cold temperatures, and we've got fish.

Get out there and enjoy it while you can, because it won't last forever.

And if you're not sure where to go or what to fish, get in touch with us. We can help you figure out where the fish are moving and what tactics are working.

We hope to see you on the river.
Ontario Salmon Flies
September Trout Flies
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Chris Krysciak
Shop Manager/Head Instructor
As Drift Outfitters' Head Instructor, Chris Krysciak brings over 20 years of fly fishing and 15 years of float fishing experience to every lesson. Chris has been a competitive fly angler for over 10 years and has had the opportunity to fish for Fly Fishing Team Canada at two world championships, providing him the chance to learn from some of the best anglers in the world, skills that he loves to share with new and experienced anglers alike! Chris also has a deep passion for fly tying , having been a commercial fly tyer for many years, as well as having been featured at the International Fly Tying Symposium and in numerous magazines.

Chris will take any opportunity available to get on the water, wherever that presents. There aren't many corners of Ontario he hasn't fished, and has also had the chance to fish across Canada, The Carribean, and Europe. From trout, to Atlantic salmon, to carp, to musky, to bonefish, to tarpon, if it's a fish, you can find him chasing it!