Here's your fishing forecast for November 12th! We’ve got a really good-looking weekend ahead for steelheading across Ontario. After last weekend’s surprise dump of snow, things are warming up, and that means melting snow and rising river levels right across the province.
We’re also looking at a bit of rain mixed into the forecast, especially up north, which will help push more water, and more fish, into the systems. Between the melt and the mild temps, this weekend and early next week should both offer excellent conditions, depending on where you plan to fish.
Weather and Water Conditions
If you’re fishing closer to Lake Ontario, we expect a slow, steady melt that’ll bring rivers up nicely without blowing them out. Down around the city, rainfall looks light, just a few millimetres before the weekend, with a touch more Saturday evening that shouldn’t impact fishing too much.
Further north, though on Georgian Bay and Lake Huron tributaries will be a different story. Those areas received far more snow, and now with 10mm+ of rain expected over a couple of days, we’ll see faster melt and potentially higher, dirtier flows. Systems like the Bighead, Nottawasaga, and Maitland could be running full or even high by the weekend, so you may want to wait until early next week for prime conditions up there.
Keep an eye on flow charts and get in touch with us for up to date reports.
Cold Water Means Slower Fish
Even with milder air temps, remember that meltwater is near freezing, and that’s going to chill rivers quickly. Cold water means fish will start to settle into their winter lies, think softer, slower water instead of the fast runs and riffles that held fish earlier in the season.
Focus your time on:
- Deeper pools
- Tailouts
- Slack edges and soft seams
Some systems like the Maitland, Bighead, and Niagara still see later-run fish that tolerate cold water better, so they may hold in more varied water. But for most southern Ontario tributaries, this is when you start to fish methodically and slow down your presentation.
Tactics and Patterns
When water temperatures drop, slowing down your approach is key.
If you’re nymphing or centerpinning, take your time and make several drifts through each run before moving on.
If you’re swinging flies, use sink tips that keep your flies lower and slow that swing down.
Top fly and bait picks this week:
- Egg patterns in soft pinks, whites, and peaches
- Pink worms (San Juans, squirmies, or raven worms) — especially effective as water cools
- Nymphs like hare’s ears, prince nymphs, and stoneflies
- Swing flies in darker, cold-water colors — black, purple, and blue all shine this time of year
As rivers rise and temps drop, these patterns and presentations will keep you in the game when fish turn sluggish.
With the mix of snowmelt, rain, and mild temperatures, conditions are lining up beautifully for mid-November steelhead. Just keep an eye on water levels and pick your system accordingly, southern rivers this weekend, northern ones early next week.
Dress warm, fish slow, and cover that softer water, there are plenty of fish around if you adjust your approach.
As always, if you need help figuring out where to go or what to fish, stop by the shop or give us a shout. We’re happy to help you gear up and dial in your setup.
